The Ghetto - Donny Hathaway (1969). Click to listen while you read ->   Donny Hathaway The Ghetto.

Simplistic Statistics

Every person deserves to be judged on their individual character, not as part of a group.

"I see myself in the pistol smoke" Gangster's Paradise by Coolio.

The following statistic is commonly cited by the media:

"A study of lethal force by law enforcement found that a majority of victims were White, but a disproportionate amount were Black, with a fatality rate 2.8 times higher."

Evidence of systemic racism?


To conclude bias, as the media does, using this simplistic statistic, is superficial and oversimplified.

Let's use lighting strikes to illustrate.


85% of lightning fatalities are men. Only 49% of the population is male.

89% of lightning fatalities are white. Only 72% of the population is white.

Is lightning biased against MEN and WHITES?


Of course not.

We instinctively understand that other factors must be involved. You can probably guess that these factors have something to do with being outdoors.

Click on the picture to see what those are.



What other factors might there be to explain the next two charts?


Simplistic Statistic.

Looking at this chart, which compares only blacks and whites, we see that blacks are 34% of those killed by police, though they are only 13% of the population
As the media reports it "a fatality rate 2.8 times higher".
Looks like racism.




Mapping Police Violence.

This chart, which they title "Black people are most likely to be killed by police" shows that blacks are killed at a 3X rate by police, compared to whites
Looks like racism.



What's Missing?

Add just ONE factor and it becomes clear, why these charts are misleading.


Include Homicide rates.

US Justice Deparment reports - Blacks accounted for 52.5% of all homicide offenders from 1980 to 2008.
The offending rate for blacks was 7X the rate for whites. More homicides mean more violent interactions with the police. It's not racism.
Over 53% of all murder victims were black in 2019. Victims need more police protection, not less.



And the statistics go beyond homicide. Other violent crimes show the same statistical pattern to give context to Police Shootings.


This 2017 count of Arrests by Race and Ethnicity, compiled by the FBI, gives us more insight into why the Press's conclusion that police are biased is false.

These are the raw numbers. They show homicides but they also show rape, robbery and aggravated assault. All crimes that may lead to a violent interaction with police. When reviewing these numbers remember what the media reminds us - that blacks make up only 13% of the total population.

Let's process the above numbers for more accuracy. US department of Justice reports that from 1976 through 1997, 85 percent of white murder victims were killed by whites and 94 percent of black victims were killed by blacks. Applying this the murder rate by race to the above numbers gives us (4,188 * 95%) = 3,560 murders by Whites, (5,025 * 94%) = 4,723 murders committed by Blacks.

Based on population, Blacks have a murder rate 7 times higher than whites. And if fatal encounters with police are a result of violent crime, blacks should have a statiscal rate of 7X higher than whites, not the existing 2.8X higher. This indicates that police may be using more restraint, not less, with the black population.

Where did this number come from?
Black: 1 murder for every 8,470 persons. (Black population of 40 million / 4,723 murders).
White: 1 murder for every 56,178 persons. (White population of 200 million / 3,560 murders).
7 x the rate of black homicide versus white. (56,000 / 8,000)


Now we can examine the REAL reasons for high black homicide rates. We know its not the color of the skin. Pigment has no bearing on the character of the individual.


Then why such a high correlation between homicide and being black? Is it where you live? Who your friends are? Is it drug trafficing, fatherless homes, poverty, availability of guns, poor education, lack of spiritual training? What do ALL THOSE who commit violent crime have in common? One contributing factor is likely the criminal culture, with its mythical allure of fame, money, women and power.



Gangster Rap. Gangster values. Gangster death.

Don Brown. Gang member with gun. Later killed. Click on the picture for the story.




Gangster Paradise.

Hip Hop Gangster Rap Artists

"As I grow I see myself in the pistol smoke..., I'm the kinda G the little homies wanna be like"

Click HERE to listen to this Gangster Rap Classic that describes the meaness, the hopelessness, but also THE ALURE of the Gangster life.



If we care about Black Lives, let's explore the root of the problem and stop accusing the police of being racist.

When the media accuses the police in the US of systemic racism based on a simple count of deaths of blacks at the hands of police, they ignore the real story. The high proportional count of homicides by blacks. Why? The facts are easily available.



Media accuses the President of racist talking points.


"More whites are being killed." The President said. CNN story at the bottom of the page.

Click on chart to read BBC story on police numbers from 2016.




Knowing that Blacks are involved in more homicides than whites, and looking at the numbers in the pie chart above...



Do police kill whites in a disproportionately high number?


Given the media's logic, it appears so. Whites commit less than 1/2 the number of homicides as blacks but are killed almost 2x as often by police.

Click on police picture for an excellent fact check story


Now we COULD use this information to state:

"A study found that a majority of homicides were committed by blacks, but that lethal force by law enforcement was used disproportionate against whites, with a fatality rate 1.8 times higher than blacks."

But we intuitively know, there must be more to the story. We don't now jump to the same racist conclusions, in reverse, as the media does.


Studies


Here are the findings of professional economists and sociologists who go beyond the simple numbers.


Roland G. Fryer Jr. - Professor of Economics at Harvard University, tells us that with the available data, conclusions are difficult to make. But using reasonable assumptions the evidence for police bias is lacking.

“...The Literature Datasets (The Post, Guardian, VICE, US Police-Shooting Database) ... have severe limitations for determining whether those statistics are due to racial bias... Put simply, if one assumes police simply stop whomever they want for no particular reason, there seem to be large racial differences. If one assumes they are trying to prevent violent crimes, then evidence for bias is exceedingly small.”


We’ve already mentioned the study by David Johnson (see Study above). This study was cited 14 times in other publications, which led to "Cancel Culture" pressure being applied on him to retract. He did, but not without affirming its conclusion.

David Johnson, co-author, found “no evidence of anti-Black or anti-Hispanic disparities across shootings, and White officers are not more likely to shoot minority civilians than non-White officers." In his request for retraction he stood by his findings that "We found there was no relationship between the race of officers and the civilians they fatally shot when controlling for county racial demographics and crime rates."


Driving While Black

A parent's nightmare?

Young black couple
Young black male


Police pull over more than 50,000 drivers on a typical day, more than 20 million motorists every year. Click on the image to read more.



The media and BLM want black parents to believe that there is inordinate amount of danger to their sons driving because of systemic racism in US police. So lets use some statistics on that. What percentage chance is there of getting shot and killed by police for a black man in a traffic stop? Using a provided estimate of 20 million traffic stops and, for the benefit of any doubters, imagine that fully 1/2 of those pulled over are black men. This means that a black person has a 13* in 10 million or 1 in 714,000 chance of being shot and killed by police in a traffic stop. About the same chance as being killed by a meteorite (about 1 in 700,000, according to astronomer Alan Harris).

The biggest threat to a black male? The most likely cause of death?

The worry of a Black parent, that their son may be killed when pulled over by the police, pales in comparison with the statistical chance that their child may be murdered by another black male.

This is the true tragedy and danger. This is what society must address. 4,273 murders of Blacks, by Blacks. Not the death of nine, or thirteen, or even 20 unarmed black persons killed by police.



College students


But wait! How about some common sense!? Your black roomate at college is not 7x more likely to murder you as the white student across the hall. You intuitely understand that you need more information. What other factors are involved? And can you in fact logically correlate skin color with a propensity to murder? And that's why this statistic, just like the one the media uses, is a simplistic statistic.

Statistics like these cannot be an indictment of the black race, or white police. They are a symptom. To take a large sampling of events, categorize them by race, and apply the result to an individual is bias (racism). Similarly, to take the actions of an individual, and treat them as a representative of the race, is bias (racism) as well. Each individual person deserves to be judged on their individual character.

The only way we can fight misinformation, fear, resentments, political distortion, is with the facts.


The next time you see a headline and story like this...

CNN accuses the President of Racism.

CNN Reports: [The President] repeated racist talking points... downplaying police violence against Black Americans..., claiming that "more White people" are dying at the hands of law enforcement than Black people. A federal study...found that a majority of victims were White, but a disproportionate amount were Black, with a fatality rate 2.8 times higher".


... You will not be misled because...

As Paul Harvey famously said, "now you know the rest of the story".



* Washington Post’s database has reported 14 instances of police shooting and killing unarmed Black men in 2019.


Home     Police     Study     BLM Martyrs     Black Success     Black Thinkers     Statistics     Media     Being White     Censored